House of Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt will find out if she has held her seat of Portsmouth North, which she has represented since 2010. She is defending a majority of 15,780 and a swing to Labour of 17.2 points would see her defeated. The result is due from the new seat of Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes, where the Tories are defending a notional majority of 9,759: the sort of constituency Labour has to win (the swing needed is 11.8 points) to be sure of a comfortable majority.
Two of the most remote constituencies in Scotland should declare during this hour: Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross and Orkney & Shetland, both of which the Lib Dems are hoping to win, while results should come in for two of Labour’s top London targets: Finchley & Golders Green and Hendon, both held since 2010 by the Conservatives. Another Cabinet minister, Education Secretary Gillian Keegan, will discover her fate at Chichester. Ms Keegan is defending a majority at this election of 19,622, with second-place party the Lib Dems needing a swing of 19.3 points to take a seat they last held – as the Liberal Party – 100 years ago.
After polling stations close at 10pm on July 4, the counting process begins in 650 constituencies across the UK. The first seats to be announced will be around midnight, and the last around 6am, if everything goes to plan. The Lib Dems should discover if they have been able to gain one of their longshots, Stratford-on-Avon, from the Conservatives: a seat they need a 17.8-point swing to win and which was held until this year by former Tory chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, who is not standing this time.
Clacton in Essex should declare, which is being defended by Giles Watling for the Conservatives and where Reform leader Nigel Farage is one of nine candidates. It is Mr Farage’s eighth attempt to become an MP. Houghton and Sunderland South has been won by Bridget Phillipson for Labour at every election since the seat was created in 2010, where she is defending a narrow majority of 3,271, while Blyth and Ashington is a new constituency at this election, where Labour is defending a notional majority of 6,118.
Other key seats to watch this hour include Ribble Valley in Lancashire, Thanet East in Kent and Scarborough & Whitby in North Yorkshire – all seats Labour needs to win to be sure of a majority in the next parliament – along with Tory-Lib Dem battlegrounds such as Eastleigh in Hampshire, tutoring help math Wells & Mendip Hills in Somerset and Newton Abbot in Devon, to see how well the Conservatives hold off any potential surge by Sir Ed’s party in south-west England.
Former House of Commons leader Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg will learn if he has won the new seat of Somerset North East & Hanham, where the notional Tory majority is 16,389 and which Labour would take on a swing of 14.3 percentage points, ranking it at number 165 on the party’s target list. Among the final results to declare should be the London boroughs of Ilford North and Ilford South, both safe for Labour; the new constituency of Selby in North Yorkshire, which Keir Mather – the youngest MP at the end of the last parliament – is hoping to win for Labour and overturn a notional Tory majority of 14,838; and Farnham & Bordon, a new seat that straddles the borders of Hampshire and Surrey, which could bring the Lib Dems a late gain at the expense of the Conservatives.
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